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Re: Throwing to WRs

By Hellbringer
2/27/2021 1:57 pm
Can you share it here or pm me please?

Re: Throwing to WRs

By setherick
2/27/2021 2:27 pm
Done. A word about this data. From what I've seen, the passing play by itself is usually not the problem when it comes to INTs. INTs seem to be a product of these things:

1) Defensive play vs passing play (yes, this is number 1)
2) QB intelligence* ( 80-90 INT = Eli Manning, 70-80 = Trent Dilfer, < 70 Jameis Winston territory)
3) QB accuracy, arm, passing release
4) Defender skill
5) WR route running skills

*QB Intelligence can be severely impaired by QB pressure.

Ordered by Formation and INT/100 descending.

[Passing Play] -- [Attempts] -- [Comp%] -- [TD/INT] -- [INT/100]

Shotgun 5 Wide Middle Curls -- 13 -- 30.77 -- 0 -- 15.38
Shotgun 5 Wide WR Curls -- 14 -- 35.71 -- 0 -- 7.14
Shotgun 5 Wide Slot Drag -- 82 -- 71.95 -- 2 -- 2.44
Shotgun 5 Wide Parallel Slants -- 286 -- 70.63 -- 0.83 -- 2.1
Shotgun 5 Wide FL Hook -- 13 -- 38.46 -- 0 -- 0
Shotgun 5 Wide Slot Cross -- 121 -- 63.64 -- 1 -- 0
Singleback Empty 4 Slot Crosses -- 11 -- 45.45 -- 2 -- 9.09
Singleback Empty 4 Short Posts -- 13 -- 38.46 -- 1 -- 7.69
Singleback Empty 4 TE Corner -- 136 -- 54.41 -- 1.2 -- 3.68
Empty 4 Wide Spread Corner Post -- 172 -- 55.23 -- 0.8 -- 2.91
Empty 4 Wide Spread Deep Corner Post -- 4 -- 50 -- 0 -- 0
Empty 4 Wide Spread Flats -- 18 -- 44.44 -- 0 -- 0
Singleback Empty 4 TE Deep Out -- 24 -- 54.17 -- 1 -- 0
Singleback Empty 4 WR Post Corner -- 9 -- 33.33 -- 0 -- 0
Shotgun 4 Wide In and Out -- 7 -- 42.86 -- 0 -- 14.29
Singleback 4 Wide Quick Outs -- 19 -- 36.84 -- 0 -- 5.26
Singleback 4 Wide Clear Center -- 30 -- 70 -- 2 -- 3.33
Singleback 4 Wide Post and Drag -- 31 -- 38.71 -- 1 -- 3.23
Shotgun 4 Wide All Curls -- 5 -- 80 -- 1 -- 0
Shotgun 4 Wide Slot Curl -- 10 -- 60 -- 0 -- 0
Shotgun 4 Wide Slot Drag -- 11 -- 45.45 -- 0 -- 0
Shotgun 4 Wide WR Corner -- 2 -- 50 -- 0 -- 0
Singleback 4 Wide Deep Middle -- 1 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0
Singleback 4 Wide Post and Curls -- 5 -- 40 -- 0 -- 0
Singleback 4 Wide WR Crosses -- 34 -- 61.76 -- 1 -- 0
Singleback Slot Strong All Go -- 3 -- 0 -- 0 -- 33.33
Singleback Slot Strong Overload Strong -- 24 -- 33.33 -- 0.25 -- 16.67
Shotgun Normal Double Outs -- 19 -- 73.68 -- 0 -- 5.26
Singleback Normal FL Post -- 218 -- 63.3 -- 0.36 -- 5.05
Shotgun Normal FL Slant -- 84 -- 65.48 -- 1.33 -- 3.57
Singleback Normal FL Drag -- 85 -- 65.88 -- 0 -- 3.53
Singleback Normal Deep Corners -- 29 -- 65.52 -- 1 -- 3.45
Singleback Normal All Go -- 205 -- 71.22 -- 2.57 -- 3.41
Shotgun Normal TE Out -- 30 -- 60 -- 0 -- 3.33
Singleback Normal FL Go -- 64 -- 42.19 -- 2.5 -- 3.12
Singleback Normal WR Post -- 32 -- 59.38 -- 0 -- 3.12
Singleback Slot Strong Skinny Posts -- 256 -- 60.94 -- 1 -- 3.12
Singleback Normal HB Release Mid -- 66 -- 50 -- 2 -- 3.03
Singleback Normal Post Corner -- 99 -- 60.61 -- 1.33 -- 3.03
Singleback Normal Quick Slant -- 394 -- 62.44 -- 1.89 -- 2.28
Shotgun Normal HB Flare -- 453 -- 71.08 -- 2.3 -- 2.21
Singleback Normal Slot WR Cross -- 47 -- 44.68 -- 0 -- 2.13
Singleback Slot Strong TE Slot Curls -- 47 -- 61.7 -- 1 -- 2.13
Shotgun Normal Short Attack -- 150 -- 76 -- 3.67 -- 2
Singleback Slot Strong HB Checkdown -- 215 -- 71.16 -- 5.75 -- 1.86
Singleback Normal Quick Looks -- 111 -- 68.47 -- 1 -- 1.8
Shotgun Normal Hail Mary -- 59 -- 40.68 -- 1 -- 1.69
Singleback Normal TE Quick Out -- 487 -- 67.56 -- 2.5 -- 1.64
Singleback Slot Strong Post Curls -- 140 -- 70.71 -- 0 -- 1.43
Shotgun Normal Deep Weak In and Out -- 32 -- 65.62 -- 0 -- 0
Shotgun Normal Post Flags -- 9 -- 55.56 -- 0 -- 0
Shotgun Normal Slot Drag -- 70 -- 75.71 -- 1 -- 0
Singleback Normal Hitch Corner -- 6 -- 100 -- 0 -- 0
Singleback Normal SE Quick Hit -- 23 -- 86.96 -- 0 -- 0
Singleback Normal WR Quick In -- 56 -- 51.79 -- 1 -- 0
Singleback Slot Strong HB Flat -- 42 -- 83.33 -- 0 -- 0
Singleback Slot Strong Slot Curl -- 5 -- 80 -- 0 -- 0
Singleback Slot Strong TE Corner -- 15 -- 53.33 -- 1 -- 0
Singleback Big WR Streaks -- 4 -- 0 -- 0 -- 25
Singleback Big Waggle Post -- 36 -- 50 -- 0.33 -- 8.33
Singleback Big Corner Ins -- 54 -- 50 -- 0.67 -- 5.56
Singleback Big HB Curls TE Deep -- 19 -- 47.37 -- 0 -- 5.26
Singleback Big WR Deep -- 248 -- 58.06 -- 1.27 -- 4.44
Singleback Big PA Curls -- 82 -- 57.32 -- 0.67 -- 3.66
Singleback Big Ins and Outs -- 191 -- 59.16 -- 0.6 -- 2.62
Singleback Big TE Flat Curl -- 2 -- 50 -- 0 -- 0
I Formation 3WR SE Post -- 10 -- 80 -- 1 -- 10
I Formation 3WR WR Post -- 94 -- 47.87 -- 0.13 -- 8.51
Split Backs 3 Wide WR Post -- 32 -- 46.88 -- 0 -- 6.25
Shotgun 2 RB 3 WR FB In -- 52 -- 59.62 -- 0.33 -- 5.77
I Formation 3WR Deep Corner/Post -- 224 -- 57.59 -- 2.45 -- 4.91
Shotgun 2 RB 3 WR RB Curls -- 45 -- 33.33 -- 0 -- 4.44
I Formation 3WR Slot Corner Long -- 76 -- 59.21 -- 1.33 -- 3.95
Split Backs 3 Wide Slot Post -- 89 -- 48.31 -- 1 -- 3.37
Split Backs 3 Wide WR2 Deep Post -- 210 -- 63.33 -- 0.71 -- 3.33
I Formation 3WR WR Out -- 160 -- 56.25 -- 1.6 -- 3.12
Split Backs 3 Wide RB Curls -- 35 -- 62.86 -- 0 -- 2.86
I Formation 3WR Backfield Flats -- 152 -- 73.68 -- 0.75 -- 2.63
I Formation 3WR Slot Corner Short -- 42 -- 54.76 -- 1 -- 2.38
Split Backs 3 Wide WR Quick Out -- 267 -- 65.54 -- 0.83 -- 2.25
I Formation 3WR PA Fullback Flat -- 685 -- 70.51 -- 2.53 -- 2.19
I Formation 3WR Slot Short WR Deep -- 387 -- 56.07 -- 2.57 -- 1.81
I Formation 3WR FL Post -- 561 -- 72.19 -- 2.56 -- 1.6
Shotgun 2 RB 3 WR WR Curl -- 102 -- 63.73 -- 2 -- 0.98
Split Backs 3 Wide Drag In -- 297 -- 71.38 -- 11 -- 0.34
I Formation 3WR Outside Curls -- 6 -- 33.33 -- 0 -- 0
I Formation 3WR Weak Flood -- 77 -- 92.21 -- 2 -- 0
Shotgun 2 RB 3 WR FL Drag -- 29 -- 65.52 -- 0 -- 0
Shotgun 2 RB 3 WR Strong Deep -- 9 -- 88.89 -- 0 -- 0
Shotgun 2 RB 3 WR WR Hooks -- 12 -- 50 -- 0 -- 0
Split Backs 3 Wide Slot Drag -- 15 -- 93.33 -- 0 -- 0
I Formation Normal PA Streaks -- 8 -- 12.5 -- 0 -- 12.5
Strong I Normal PA All Go -- 44 -- 38.64 -- 0.75 -- 9.09
I Formation Twin WR Quick Outs -- 43 -- 65.12 -- 0.33 -- 6.98
I Formation Twin WR Strong Flood -- 47 -- 70.21 -- 0 -- 6.38
I Formation Normal Max Protect -- 17 -- 58.82 -- 0 -- 5.88
I Formation Normal Curl & Post -- 39 -- 58.97 -- 0.5 -- 5.13
Split Backs Normal WR Deep Corner -- 41 -- 56.1 -- 1 -- 4.88
Weak I Normal All Go -- 356 -- 63.2 -- 2.27 -- 4.21
I Formation Normal SE Post -- 212 -- 65.09 -- 1.75 -- 3.77
Strong I Normal Quick Hooks -- 217 -- 78.8 -- 0.71 -- 3.23
I Formation Normal FB Middle -- 35 -- 57.14 -- 2 -- 2.86
I Formation Twin WR Slot Out -- 262 -- 66.79 -- 2.57 -- 2.67
I Formation Normal PA Fullback Flat -- 542 -- 67.71 -- 3.21 -- 2.58
I Formation Twin WR Hook Ins -- 81 -- 71.6 -- 0 -- 2.47
I Formation Twin WR Hard Slants -- 189 -- 61.9 -- 2.25 -- 2.12
Weak I Normal Skinny Posts -- 142 -- 62.68 -- 2.67 -- 2.11
I Formation Normal FL Hitch -- 1001 -- 73.23 -- 7 -- 2.1
Weak I Normal WR Corner TE Middle -- 428 -- 72.9 -- 1.78 -- 2.1
Split Backs Normal Posts -- 117 -- 59.83 -- 2 -- 1.71
Strong I Normal Short Attack -- 367 -- 65.12 -- 1.6 -- 1.36
I Formation Normal TE Out -- 163 -- 52.76 -- 4 -- 1.23
I Formation Normal Cross In -- 293 -- 79.18 -- 2.33 -- 1.02
Strong I Normal WR Post TE Out -- 490 -- 76.94 -- 2.8 -- 1.02
Split Backs Normal Skinny Post Corner -- 245 -- 80 -- 7 -- 0.82
I Formation Normal FL Hook -- 3 -- 66.67 -- 0 -- 0
I Formation Normal PA Outside Curls -- 6 -- 66.67 -- 0 -- 0
I Formation Normal Strong Flood -- 15 -- 73.33 -- 0 -- 0
I Formation Normal TE Flag -- 4 -- 25 -- 0 -- 0
Split Backs Normal Curls -- 4 -- 25 -- 0 -- 0
Split Backs Normal Overload Strong -- 1 -- 100 -- 0 -- 0
Split Backs Normal TE Curl -- 133 -- 79.7 -- 3 -- 0
Split Backs Normal WR Post -- 3 -- 66.67 -- 0 -- 0
Strong I Big TE Post -- 278 -- 61.87 -- 1.55 -- 3.96
Strong I Big TE Deep Corner -- 282 -- 72.34 -- 3.33 -- 3.19
I Formation Big Streak Heavy -- 35 -- 68.57 -- 3 -- 2.86
Strong I Big WR Quick In -- 114 -- 59.65 -- 3 -- 2.63
Weak I Big TE Deep Post -- 166 -- 61.45 -- 4 -- 2.41
Weak I Big WR Post TE Out -- 230 -- 73.04 -- 2.25 -- 1.74
Strong I Big Backfield Drag -- 120 -- 79.17 -- 3.5 -- 1.67
I Formation Big TE Sneak Out -- 42 -- 64.29 -- 4 -- 0
Strong I Big HB Swing -- 10 -- 30 -- 0 -- 0
Strong I Big TE Drag -- 7 -- 100 -- 0 -- 0
Weak I Big TE Drag -- 2 -- 50 -- 0 -- 0
Goal Line Normal PA TE Drag -- 74 -- 67.57 -- 2 -- 2.7
I Formation Power Play Action HB Downfield -- 211 -- 66.82 -- 3.5 -- 2.84
I Formation Power PA Flats -- 360 -- 77.5 -- 7.5 -- 1.11
Last edited at 2/27/2021 2:28 pm

Re: Throwing to WRs

By setherick
2/27/2021 7:42 pm
Also, if you look at the plays that have the most attempts, the INT/100 trends toward 2. Part of this is me favoring certain plays over others, but it also suggests that if you control for certain variables (playing QBs with >80 INT, >80 Accuracy, etc.), the "average" r value for INT/100 appears to be 2. So anything < 2 should be considered very safe, and anything > 2 should be considered a risk.
Last edited at 2/27/2021 7:43 pm

Re: Throwing to WRs

By JerryWu
2/28/2021 3:02 am
Hellbringer wrote:
Can you share it here or pm me please?

Re: Throwing to WRs

By Hellbringer
2/28/2021 8:08 am
Strong I Normal PA All Go -- 44 -- 38.64 -- 0.75 -- 9.09

Well that's a major stat line!

Re: Throwing to WRs

By setherick
2/28/2021 8:22 am
Hellbringer wrote:
Strong I Normal PA All Go -- 44 -- 38.64 -- 0.75 -- 9.09

Well that's a major stat line!


If I remember correctly, the QB almost always throws to the FB who hasn't gotten past the LOS when the ball is thrown.

Re: Throwing to WRs

By kursetheday
4/08/2021 10:54 am
Is there any new data to provide from this study? Two more months should provide more insight.

Re: Throwing to WRs

By setherick
4/08/2021 11:23 am
kursetheday wrote:
Is there any new data to provide from this study? Two more months should provide more insight.


Yes and no. I routinely use the same 30-40 passing plays and rarely add new ones. So any new data is just going to confirm the numbers above. The general patterns hold.

In short, more data usually confirms general assumptions unless you want to get more and more granular, which I have no intention of going into here.

---

If anyone is interested in doing this themselves, it's not difficult to parse the game logs if you know how to do SQL CASE statements and effective string searching.